Match Preview

On Saturday, Truro and Eastbourne meet for the second time this season in the National League South

When Eastbourne Borough and Truro City first met this season, on 5th September, the White Tigers were still struggling to find their feet in the National League South. Truro had managed only one win in their first six matches in the new league, and the week before the Eastbourne fixture had suffered a shattering 6-0 defeat at the hands of Oxford City.

So while the resulting goal-less draw at Eastbourne might not have sounded particularly noteworthy, it was a welcome respite for Steve Tully and his men as they tried to stop the rot.

Of course, it turned out to be much more than just a breather. It was, in fact, the launch pad for an eleven match unbeaten league run which would take Truro City from 17th in the National South to a high point of fifth by the middle of November.

So as we approach the last match before Christmas, Eastbourne lie 14th in the National League South, five places and five points behind Truro City (albeit with two games in hand).

Everything points towards a very close game on Saturday. For one thing, the two teams have similar recent form. Truro have taken seven points from their last four matches and Eastbourne have taken just five. But the Sussex team have had a tougher run of games, facing three of the league’s top four sides - Ebbsfleet, Oxford and Sutton - in that time and emerging with a creditable win and two draws in those encounters.

Another reason to expect a game of small margins is the two clubs’ home and away form. So far this season, Eastbourne have actually won more points away from home – they’ve taken an average of almost two points per match on the road compared to less than one per match at home. With the reverse the case for Truro City, this also points to a tight encounter.

So what else might we expect? Well, the stats show that Eastbourne have a tendency to go behind to early goals but then come back strongly after half time. A remarkable 75% of Eastbourne’s league goals have come in the second half of matches this season (and almost a third of their goals have come in the last 15 minutes of the game), suggesting that opponents need to keep focused right up to the final whistle.

This was the case in the goal-less September fixture, with Eastbourne piling on the pressure in the closing minutes of the game. It was no surprise that the West Briton named ‘keeper Martin Rice as City’s man of the match on that occasion.

Yet another similarity between the two teams is that, like Truro, with 13 players on the score sheet so far this season, Eastbourne have shared the goals around this year. The club’s leading scorer is midfielder Nathaniel Pinney, though he has scored just six of the team’s 20 league goals.

While Eastbourne have not been prolific at the front this season – only the two bottom teams in the league have scored fewer goals - they have benefitted from a very tight defence. Which means, in a piece of neat symmetry, that only the two top teams in the National League South have conceded fewer goals.

This must be due in no small part to the fact that goalkeeper Lewis Carey has played every minute of every league match this season. The former Bristol City man has a reputation for keeping clean sheets, managing 15 in total last season, and is clearly a lynchpin of the team. Two other key players - midfielders Ian Simpemba and Craig Stone - have also seen out 90 minutes in all league games this year.

One piece of bad news came in November with the announcement that persistent injuries have forced defender Adam Watts, a fixture in the team since his arrival in 2012, to take an extended break from the game. The ex-Fulham player will undoubtedly be missed in Eastbourne’s back line.

Colin Bradbury.